If peace cannot be achieved in Ukraine, Russia may gain more than it demands
In a situation where the Ukrainian army is no longer able to repel attacks by Russian units – when weakened or broken lines and positions can no longer be stabilized, Russian reserves can be expected to be deployed along key axes of advance.
This could involve an advance from the Donbas region toward Dnipropetrovsk region, motivated also by the desire to acquire raw materials and industrial assets. However, military operations aimed at occupying the Black Sea port of Odessa, including the strip adjacent to the Black Sea coast, cannot be ruled out. This territory is of strategic importance to both sides. Access to the Black Sea is a vital maritime trade route connecting Ukraine with global markets. For Russia, it is mainly a matter of expanding its geopolitical influence, extending the occupied territory of Ukraine with the aim of limiting its economic and military potential, and connecting with Transnistria, where a Russian military contingent is present.
In addition to the fighting on the front lines, a number of operations are currently underway to disrupt the enemy's rear and supply lines. If Russia succeeds in advancing on the front lines while also significantly weakening the rear, the conditions will be created for the deployment of the reserves that Russia is building up. This is not just a matter of troop numbers, but also of new equipment that has not yet been deployed to the front lines.
Iran and the interests of Russia and China
Was it realistic to expect Russia and China to provide military assistance to Iran during the Israeli and US campaign? Attacks against facilities and capacities linked primarily to nuclear development, as well as against military leaders, weakened the regime but did not sufficiently eliminate the threat. Perhaps this somewhat limited conflict, which ended with a quick ceasefire, was also influenced by the approach of Russia and China, and thus by predefining an acceptable scope of offensive operations, which was probably agreed in advance. Neither China nor Russia currently has any interest in escalating the situation or getting involved in the conflict in the Middle East. Iran is also not willing to engage in a major conflict with a stronger opponent (Israel and the US) at this time.
It is also becoming increasingly clear that the Middle East is a higher priority for the US than Ukraine, while Russia is currently focusing most of its attention and resources on the conflict in Ukraine. Moreover, Russia is currently satisfied with not having to withdraw its bases in Syria. At present, not having to prop up the former Assad regime is probably also a financial relief for Russia.
China has recently been strengthening Iran's capabilities in the field of guided missile production, including the provision of satellite technology, which is likely to make it easier for China to win Iran over to its interests. In March 2021, Iran and China signed a strategic cooperation agreement for the next 25 years. The agreement focuses primarily on energy and investment, but also includes cooperation in the military-commercial sphere. This is another step in line with China's geopolitical interests. It cannot be ruled out that further economic and military aid to Iran from China is now underway. In any case, it is difficult to assess at this stage who will ultimately benefit from this episode in the campaign to attack and weaken Iran. A victorious battle does not necessarily lead to a victorious war.
In addition, China has advocated compliance with the international agreement on Iran's nuclear program, which Iran began to "violate" in 2019 when the US withdrew from the agreement. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce recently stated that Beijing will seek to save the nuclear agreement. Now, it seems that this "problem" has at least been postponed and there is still a chance that it can be resolved through negotiations rather than the use of military force.
Cooperation among Pakistan, China, and Iran has recently intensified. Given the ties between China and Pakistan and their mutual economic and military cooperation, this is likely a Chinese effort to create a broader coalition to counter the US and Israel in particular, and possibly their European allies. Currently, as the main player in this coalition, China needs stability in the region for its development and is fully aware that avoiding regional crises allows it to maintain uninterrupted development.
