Rafales and Gripens: New Agreement Expands Ukraine’s Aviation Diversification Strategy
On the eve of a bilateral meeting in Paris, Paris and Kyiv finalized an agreement that is being presented as decisive for the future of Ukrainian military aviation. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced a strengthened partnership with France, which is likely to include Rafale fighter jets and new air defense capabilities. The details have yet to be finalized, but the military and industrial stakes are considerable.
The Ukrainian president said he had secured a major commitment from Paris to modernize his country’s combat aviation. This development comes at a critical time as Kyiv seeks to consolidate its air defense amid constant pressure from Russian strikes. President Zelenskyy’s planned visit to France should clarify the exact nature of this agreement. For their part, the French authorities have reiterated their willingness to support Ukraine in sustainably strengthening its military capabilities, particularly in terms of air defense.
France has recognized expertise in defense systems, particularly in anti-drone warfare and advanced aeronautical technologies. The idea is to give Ukraine access to solutions tailored to its operational needs, whether Rafale fighter jets or other means of air defense. Paris is highlighting the role of its arms industry, which is capable of providing high-performance equipment to counter modern threats. The meeting in Paris is also expected to address the terms and conditions that would enable Kyiv to quickly integrate some of these capabilities into its military apparatus.
For several months, Kyiv has been in discussions with several partners to build a renewed air force. The Rafale, renowned for its versatility, could be part of this long-term strategy. However, such a project requires considerable resources: training of mechanics, preparation of pilots, and specific infrastructure. France regularly points out that its own Rafale fleet is in high demand, which limits the possibility of taking aircraft directly from its own forces.
The Dassault Rafale is a twin-engine, canard delta-wing, multirole fighter aircraft designed and built by Dassault Aviation. Introduced into French service in 2001, it has proven its worth in diverse combat operations, including missions in Afghanistan, Libya, Mali, Iraq, and Syria. Capable of performing air superiority, interdiction, aerial reconnaissance, ground support, in-depth strike, anti-shipping, and nuclear deterrence roles, the Rafale excels in all-weather and low-level environments. It features advanced avionics, including the Thales RBE2 active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, which provides superior situational awareness and targeting. The aircraft can carry a wide array of weapons, such as the Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile, SCALP cruise missiles, and AASM Hammer guided bombs—some of which France has already supplied to Ukraine. In its latest F4 standard, the Rafale incorporates enhanced connectivity, drone integration, and electronic warfare capabilities, making it a formidable 4.5-generation platform. With over 300 units delivered globally as of 2025, the Rafale has secured export success in countries like Egypt, India, Qatar, and Greece, underscoring its reliability and adaptability.
Dassault Aviation, the manufacturer of the Rafale, has a full order book, particularly due to export sales. Increasing production would require significant industrial adjustments. A possible delivery to Ukraine could be supported by multinational financing mechanisms, such as programs coordinated by NATO. It remains to be seen whether such an option would be compatible with current production capacities and with the operational schedule of Kyiv, which is seeking to quickly obtain new solutions for its air defense.
Recent developments have crystallized these ambitions into concrete commitments. On November 17, 2025, during Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s visit to Paris, he and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a landmark letter of intent at Villacoublay military airbase, flanked by a fully armed Rafale jet and national flags. This agreement paves the way for Ukraine to acquire up to 100 Rafale F4-standard fighters over the next decade, starting as early as 2026. The deal, valued as potentially the largest Rafale export in history, also encompasses eight advanced SAMP/T air defense systems (each with six launchers), high-performance radars like the GF300, munitions, and drones. Zelenskyy hailed it as a "historic deal" that would create "one of the greatest air defenses in the world," emphasizing joint production of low-cost interceptor drones and technology transfers for Ukrainian integration. Macron described it as a "new step forward" in bilateral ties, including pilot training programs—leveraging Ukraine’s experience with French Mirage 2000 jets, which pilots can transition to Rafales in under a year. Shares in Dassault Aviation surged 8% on the announcement, reflecting market confidence in the firm’s capacity to ramp up output to four jets per month. While not yet a binding contract, this framework addresses financing challenges, potentially drawing on frozen Russian assets and NATO coalitions, amid concerns over U.S. support fluctuations under the Trump administration.
This Rafale pact complements Ukraine’s broader aviation diversification strategy. Just weeks earlier, on October 22, 2025, Zelenskyy visited Sweden and inked a letter of understanding with Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson in Linköping, outlining the future purchase of up to 150 Saab JAS 39 Gripen E fighters—the largest such deal in Ukraine’s history. The Gripen, a lightweight, single-engine multirole fighter known for its cost-effectiveness, ease of maintenance, and rapid deployment from austere airfields, aligns with Kyiv’s needs for a sustainable post-war fleet. Initial deliveries of older Gripen C/D variants could begin in 2026 to bridge gaps, followed by new-build E models by 2028-2030, with full localization of production in Ukraine targeted for 2033. This includes assembly lines and component manufacturing at Ukrainian facilities, boosting domestic industry and reducing long-term dependency. Saab, aiming to produce 20-30 Gripens annually, sees this as a landmark export, potentially financed via the same "coalition of the willing" and seized Russian funds. Experts note the Gripen’s compatibility with NATO systems, advanced AESA radar, and Meteor missile integration, positioning it as a "significantly more capable medium-weight fighter" for Ukraine’s evolving threats.
Together, these initiatives—with Rafales for heavy multirole punch and Gripens for agile, economical operations—signal Ukraine’s vision for a modern, hybrid Western air force. Augmented by incoming U.S. F-16s and French Mirages, this could total over 300 advanced jets by 2035, transforming Kyiv’s capabilities against Russian aggression. Yet challenges persist: pilot training (up to three years for Rafales), infrastructure upgrades, and geopolitical funding. As Zelenskyy stated post-Paris, "This is a strategic agreement that will work for 10 years," underscoring Europe’s resolve to secure Ukraine’s skies for generations. The Paris summit also touched on post-conflict troop deployments along Ukraine’s borders, reinforcing long-term deterrence. In a region shadowed by ongoing strikes on energy infrastructure, these pacts not only bolster immediate defenses but foster industrial sovereignty, ensuring Ukraine emerges resilient.
