Risks and consequences of conflicts, or there is less and less good news
The ease with which our civilisation creates crises far exceeds its ability to solve them. Does this trend signal a possible decline – or something even worse? For example, the war in Ukraine clearly shows how difficult it is to end such a military conflict, especially when neither side feels defeated and therefore does not have to immediately accept conditions that are disadvantageous or otherwise unacceptable.
Time, resources, support, determination and geopolitical interests
An important question in such cases is who has the advantage in terms of time and the material resources that can be committed to the conflict. In addition to resources, the will or support of society to continue the war and accept its consequences plays an increasingly important role.
Another important aspect of waging war is the extent of support that the warring parties can draw on. It is also important whether this support can be relied upon throughout the conflict. This last factor can have a significant or even decisive impact in a prolonged conflict, depending on the extent and importance of the support.
Currently, some Western countries are considering whether to supply Ukraine with long-range guided missiles. It is questionable what real impact their use would have on the further development of the conflict, including its further escalation. Russia's proposals for peace talks with Ukrainian leaders may also be linked to the threat of deploying these MLRS. In this way, Russia may be trying to avert or at least delay this threat.
The course of the conflict in Ukraine will depend to a large extent on the position and real steps taken by the US. In addition to President Trump's declared interest in ending the conflict, his next steps will also be influenced by business opportunities and, above all, the need to focus on his main rival, China. The US is looking for ways to deal with China's growing power and influence. So far, the situation has not been favourable for the US, which is falling behind, particularly in its relations with China. In this context, the US is also seeking to reduce its involvement in parts of the world that are less important to its interests and to redirect its forces and resources to current priorities.
Given today's dynamic geopolitical developments, it is also necessary to take into account changes in the ‘national interests’ of other countries, which in the case of democratic countries are also driven by election results and thus the will of society to change its political leaders. The main reasons for these changes are primarily domestic political problems. However, democratic elections can also result in fundamental changes in foreign policy.
The impact of new technologies
Another significant advantage in armed conflict may be the use of new technologies, including new effective operational and tactical procedures. New technologies have enabled, for example, the mass use of drones. Their superiority in terms of quantity and quality can compensate for the number of soldiers and combat equipment deployed. The effective combination of drones and selected tactics enabled Ukraine, for example, to launch a surprise attack on Russian air bases.
Further efforts to introduce autonomous combat systems will not only lead to greater efficiency and resilience, but also to efforts to reduce the risk to the lives of our own soldiers. With the development of drones and other weapon systems, the so-called grey zone (no man's land) is gradually expanding, i.e. an area that is not controlled by any of the warring parties but is very dangerous for the operations of soldiers on both sides. In connection with the growing effectiveness and number of drones deployed in Ukraine, the initial plan is to turn the enemy-controlled area into a grey zone and then occupy it with smaller units to secure it.
The development of drones is accelerating significantly in the context of the conflict in Ukraine. One of the ways to make their deployment more effective is the use of AI (artificial intelligence). However, it is currently difficult to find a defence against drones controlled by optical fibre, which are resistant to jamming. So far, their deployment has been limited due to the rugged terrain and technical limitations on fibre length. However, it is likely that this method of deployment will be improved both technically and in terms of how it is used, e.g. by launching drones with optical fibres from a mother drone at a safe distance from identified targets.
The threat of nuclear weapons
Another question is whether a country without nuclear weapons can defeat an enemy that has them and even declares its willingness to use them. Without adequate support and guarantees from other countries with nuclear weapons, this is obviously just a rhetorical question. The credibility of their use may also vary. It is likely to be different for a country that is directly threatened and for countries that are not directly threatened, but whose very existence could be threatened by their use. Paradoxically, nuclear weapons in the hands of both sides dampen the escalation of conventional conflicts. This was most recently demonstrated during the limited clashes between the Indian and Pakistani armies. However, it was interesting to see who sided with which side, regardless of the causes and the first aggressive steps. The emphasis is no longer on compliance with international law, but on self-interest backed by the threat of force.
Even in some democratic states, power and economic interests are increasingly taking precedence over declared values. New power groups and alliances are pushing their point of view, often unconcerned about the questionable past of their new allies. In democratic states, it is then up to the voters to act as a safeguard against politicians acting in their own interests and disregarding their fellow citizens. The primary concern of politicians should always be the genuine maintenance of a secure international environment.
