Russia amasses over 50,000 troops near Ukraine’s Sumy region sparking fears of new northern offensive

Tensions surge as Ukraine braces for a possible large-scale assault; Zelenskyy warns of renewed Russian aggression

In a concerning escalation along Ukraine’s northeastern frontier, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Russia has massed over 50,000 troops near the Sumy region, raising alarms of a potential new offensive just months after similar incursions in Kharkiv.

Speaking on May 28, Zelenskyy said Russian forces, including elite units, have concentrated along the Kursk front, directly across the border from Ukraine's Sumy Oblast. “Their largest, strongest forces are now gathered near Kursk,” he stated, “and they’re preparing to advance into our Sumy region.” The buildup, he warned, may be a precursor to a fresh assault designed to stretch Ukraine’s already strained defensive lines.

Russia’s Strategy: A Buffer Zone?

According to Ukrainian intelligence and public remarks by Russian leadership, the Kremlin appears to be seeking a 10-kilometer-deep "buffer zone" along the border. Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously signaled support for such a strategy, presenting it as a security measure to protect Russian border settlements from Ukrainian cross-border attacks. However, Ukrainian officials and Western analysts argue that the buildup is a thinly veiled cover for renewed territorial expansion.

If launched, this would mark a significant expansion of Russia’s northern front. It would also mirror tactics used earlier this year in Kharkiv Oblast, where Russian forces attempted rapid advances before being slowed and repelled by Ukrainian countermeasures.

Ukraine Responds with Defense and Diplomacy

Despite the pressure, Ukrainian forces have been mounting a firm resistance. Recent operations saw Ukrainian troops retake approximately four kilometers of territory near Kostiantynivka. This localized success underscores Ukraine’s ability to fight back, even as it faces manpower and equipment shortages.

Still, the situation in Sumy remains volatile. Reports from the front indicate that Russian troops have captured at least four small border villages, raising concerns that the offensive may already be underway in a limited form — possibly to test Ukrainian response times or soften defenses ahead of a broader push.

President Zelenskyy has emphasized the importance of international support and flexibility in diplomacy. He proposed several potential neutral venues for peace talks, including Turkey, the Vatican, and Switzerland. Notably, he ruled out Belarus, citing its role in facilitating Russia’s initial 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Zelenskyy also suggested openness to a trilateral summit with U.S. President Donald Trump and President Putin, signaling that despite the battlefield tensions, diplomatic solutions remain on the table.

The Ghost of 2022 and a Renewed Threat

Sumy, a region that saw intense fighting in the early weeks of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, had until now remained relatively quiet in 2024. That has changed dramatically in recent weeks as Russian forces, buoyed by renewed mobilization and arms production, shift their focus back to the north.

According to Ukrainian officials, Russia may seek to replicate its Kharkiv tactics — combining heavy bombardments, probing raids, and rapid mechanized pushes — but this time with better logistics and preparation.

Strategic and Symbolic Implications

The potential attack on Sumy would not only strain Ukrainian defenses but also carry symbolic weight. The region borders northern Ukrainian towns that resisted occupation in 2022, and any renewed aggression there would further inflame fears of a long war of attrition.

Military analysts also point to the logistical burden a northern offensive would impose on Ukraine, forcing Kyiv to divert troops and resources from more active eastern and southern fronts like Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

What Comes Next?

The presence of over 50,000 Russian soldiers — with the potential for even more reinforcements — marks a critical juncture in the war. As Ukraine braces for what may come, officials are urging their Western allies for accelerated military aid, particularly air defense systems, drones, and artillery.

With global attention fixed once again on Ukraine’s northeast, the coming weeks may reveal whether this is a show of force — or the start of a major new phase in Russia’s invasion.