Russia-China Alliance: Leaked Files Reveal Covert Plan for Taiwan Invasion Through Airborne Assault
Recent revelations from a trove of leaked documents suggest a significant deepening of military cooperation between Russia and China, focused specifically on bolstering Beijing’s capabilities for a potential invasion of Taiwan. These files, reportedly obtained by the hacktivist group Black Moon and subsequently reviewed by security analysts Oleksandr V. Danylyuk and Dr. Jack Watling in a new commentary from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), detail a covert military deal for Russia to supply and train China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in advanced airborne assault tactics.
The core of the agreement centers on equipping and training the PLA to conduct large-scale airborne operations, including the airdrop of armored vehicles and special forces. This capability is one China has long sought but possesses little combat experience in, and it marks a critical step in Beijing’s broader effort to diversify its invasion options ahead of 2027 – the deadline Chinese President Xi Jinping has set for the military to be capable of seizing Taiwan.
Diversifying Invasion Strategies: Beyond Amphibious Landings
Historically, a direct amphibious landing on Taiwan has been considered the most probable scenario for a Chinese invasion. However, this approach carries immense risks. Taiwan's limited number of suitable beaches for landing craft, coupled with the vulnerability of airfields to rapid disablement, presents formidable challenges. Russia's own failed attempt to seize Hostomel Airport in the initial hours of its invasion of Ukraine serves as a stark reminder of these perils.
According to the leaked documents, Beijing is actively seeking to mitigate these risks by developing the capacity for rapid aerial deployment of troops and armor into Taiwan. This shift underscores a strategic imperative to create multiple pathways for invasion, reducing reliance on a single, high-risk operational plan.
Aiding a Key Operational Gap: Russian Expertise in Airborne Warfare
Russia’s extensive experience in airborne operations grants it a distinct advantage over China in this specialized domain. The leaked contracts confirm Moscow’s agreement to sell Beijing a full battalion’s worth of airborne weapons and equipment, alongside comprehensive training for both operators and support personnel.
The sophisticated package includes 37 BMD-4M light amphibious assault vehicles, 11 Sprut-SDM1 self-propelled anti-tank guns, 11 BTR-MDM “Rakushka” armored personnel carriers, and several Rubin and KSHM-E command vehicles. Crucially, all these systems will be modified for seamless integration with Chinese command, control, and communication systems.
Training protocols are equally extensive. Russian instructors will provide specialized instruction to Chinese paratroopers on operating these vehicles, with crews undergoing training at facilities in Kurgan and Penza. This foundational instruction will be followed by collective battalion-level exercises conducted in China, with continued support from Russian personnel, to refine tactics for landing, fire control, and maneuver in a combat scenario.
Strategic Implications: New Offensive Options for Beijing
The ability to air-drop armored vehicles into strategic locations such as golf courses or open ground near ports and airfields would significantly enhance the combat power of Chinese air assault troops. This capability would allow them to establish critical footholds, clear paths for follow-on forces, and rapidly consolidate gains.
Beyond Taiwan, these airborne operations could afford Beijing considerable flexibility in a wider regional conflict. The agreements also include the transfer of “Dalnolyot” long-range parachute systems, enabling the covert insertion of equipment and special forces from high altitudes. These systems could facilitate undetected infiltration of territory, opening offensive options not only against Taiwan but also against other regional targets, such as the Philippines. Airborne troops with organic firepower and mobility could seize strategic terrain, including airfields vital for potential U.S. operations countering a Taiwan invasion.
The Architects of Cooperation: Key Defense Manufacturers
The covert deal involves prominent defense manufacturers from both nations. Russia’s side includes Kurganmashzavod (armored vehicles), NPP Rubin (command vehicles), PJSC Il (Il-76/78 transport aircraft), and KBP Instrument Design Bureau (weapons systems). On the Chinese side, state-owned giants such as AVIC, CETC, and NORINCO are implicated.
Geopolitical Context: A Deepening Strategic Alliance
Historically, Moscow has exhibited caution regarding the export of advanced technologies to China, primarily due to concerns over intellectual property theft. However, the ongoing war in Ukraine, coupled with the Kremlin’s ambition to forge a future geopolitical order characterized by rival blocs, has dramatically accelerated defense cooperation between the two powers. The RUSI commentary suggests that Moscow views a potential conflict over Taiwan as a prime opportunity to solidify its strategic value to Beijing, positioning itself as a crucial supplier of raw materials and military-industrial capacity.
For Beijing, the benefits are reciprocal. Financing Russian defense projects helps sustain Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, effectively tying down NATO resources in Europe while China intensively prepares for potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific. The documents further underscore that China’s ambitions extend beyond merely acquiring hardware; Russia’s invaluable experience in airborne operations, particularly its combat-honed command-and-control procedures, appears to be the most prized component of the deal. With the PLA lacking real-world combat experience in airborne warfare, this direct training and equipment transfer with Russian instructors could bridge a critical operational gap.
If these revelations are verified, they signal a profound deepening of Sino-Russian military integration and mark a new, potentially more perilous, phase in Beijing’s preparations for a possible war over Taiwan – one that could see armored vehicles and elite special forces descending from the skies.
