Turkey: An Emerging Military and Geopolitical Power in the Eastern Mediterranean
Over the past decade, Turkey has transformed itself from the "perpetual candidate for EU membership" into a confident player that uses its geographical location, military strength, and growing domestic defense industry to promote its own interests. Ankara now navigates between NATO, the "collective East," and the Muslim world, with its actions in the eastern Mediterranean fundamentally influencing the stability of the entire region.
The new Turkish "geopolitical strategy" can be characterized in two words: independence and sovereignty. Ankara is no longer content with its role as a peripheral—culturally alienated but tolerated—ally of the West; it is deliberately striving for the position of a regional power, from Syria and Libya to the Caucasus. This shift is evident not only in a more aggressive foreign policy, but also in the boom of the Turkish arms industry and in projects aimed at making the country energy and military self-sufficient. Today, Turkey is disrupting the status quo, and its self-confident policy is a test of whether it can become a true hegemon in the region. This development is causing concern not only in Athens and Nicosia, but also within NATO itself, which must deal with the paradox that its second-largest army is increasingly acting independently of the alliance.
Turkey's military-geopolitical ambitions
Turkey has long sought military-technological self-sufficiency. This primarily involves the MBT Altai and 5th generation TAI TF Kaan aircraft projects. In addition to these projects, Turkey manufactures a wide range of weapons, from handguns to armored vehicles, multiple rocket launchers, and UAVs. In addition to its land forces and air force, Turkey also has ambitions to develop its naval power. Under the Mavi Vatan ("Blue Homeland") doctrine, formulated in 2006, Turkey rejects the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The development of the navy is based on two major modernization projects: MILDEN and MILGEM. The first project involves the design and construction of domestic conventional submarines to replace the German-made diesel-electric submarines currently in service, with construction of the first unit having commenced on January 2 this year.
The second project focuses on the development of Ada multi-purpose corvettes (four in service), TF-100 frigates (eight planned – one unit in service and another five under construction) and TF-2000 destroyers (eight planned in total – the first unit is under construction). And finally, aircraft carriers as a symbol of power and prestige – this is how Turkey's efforts to operate aircraft carriers could be defined. The first goal was the construction of the TCG Anadolu light aircraft carrier (UAV). The original plans were to operate American F-35B aircraft. However, due to sanctions, the concept was reevaluated to a mother ship for UCAS. Construction of Turkey’s first full-fledged aircraft carrier began earlier this year. The vessel will displace around 60,000 tons and accommodate up to 50 aircraft.
The Eastern Mediterranean as the epicenter of Turkish ambitions
This is where the clash between Turkish ambitions and European and regional interests is most evident. Ankara is increasingly moving away from its role as a "loyal ally" of NATO and deliberately choosing the path of confrontation with Greece, Cyprus, and France. The discovery of new natural gas deposits in the eastern Mediterranean—such as the Calypso field off Cyprus—has created fertile ground for fierce rivalry. While countries such as Egypt, Israel, Greece, and Cyprus established the EastMed Gas Forum in 2019 without Turkey's participation, Ankara interpreted this move as an attempt to isolate it. In response, the Republic of Turkey began sending research and drilling ships, accompanied by warships, to disputed areas, thereby escalating tensions with Athens and Nicosia.
A significant turning point was Ankara's agreement with the Tripoli government in December 2019, which, in addition to military support, also included the delimitation of the Turkish-Libyan maritime economic zone. This move fundamentally changed the map of claims in the eastern Mediterranean and provoked a sharp reaction from Greece and Egypt. Cyprus, divided since 1974, is a constant source of tension. Turkey considers the northern part of the island to be within its sphere of protection and refuses to recognize the exclusive economic zones declared by the Cypriot government. Added to this are long-standing disputes with Greece over control of the Aegean Sea, which Ankara considers a matter of national security.
Turkey's Mavi Vatan doctrine reflects the belief that maritime dominance is a prerequisite for regional hegemony. The situation is further complicated by the fact that all key players—Greece, Turkey, France, and Italy—are NATO members. The dispute over gas and maritime borders is thus spilling over directly into the alliance and undermining its unity. It can therefore be said that Turkey's future in NATO depends on developments in the Mediterranean and the Middle East.
Turkey between East and West
Turkey has been a member of NATO for more than 70 years, but its membership has always been a pragmatic calculation rather than a result of cultural or political affiliation with the West. The crisis deepened particularly after the purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system, which led to Ankara's exclusion from the F-35 fighter jet program.
Another important chapter is Ankara's relationship with Brussels and vice versa. Turkey's EU accession process has practically come to a standstill. While Ankara was considered reformist and pro-European in the early days of the AKP government, anti-Western sentiment and nationalism (which the cultural-political "elites" in Brussels generally dislike) now dominate. Turkey has thus shifted from being a partner moving towards integration to a neighbor whose relationship with the EU is more conflictual than cooperative. And what about Russia? Despite historical rivalry, Turkey has grown closer to Moscow in recent years. The emergence of the Ankara-Moscow axis is evidence of pragmatism: both states seek to weaken Western influence in the region. Nevertheless, relations are not without conflict—in Syria and Libya, Ankara and Moscow often find themselves on opposite sides of the fence. The closeness between Turkey and Russia can thus be defined as a "marriage of convenience, not love."
President Erdogan's ambitions are not limited to geopolitics. Ankara presents itself as the protector of Muslim communities from the Balkans to Africa. Support for the Muslim Brotherhood, involvement in Libya, and an active role in the Palestinian question reinforce Turkey's image as the "voice of Islamic renaissance," with Erdogan positioning Turkey as a cultural and political counterweight to the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf.
Ankara as an example of the emerging multipolar world
Over the past two decades, Turkey has transformed itself into a player capable of using its geography, military strength, and political flexibility to promote its own interests. The eastern Mediterranean has become the epicenter of this shift—from disputes over gas and maritime borders to military engagement in Libya. Ankara openly professes its goal of becoming part of the "global league of powers," which will demand a greater voice at the UN. In practice, this means that Turkey no longer wants to be just a "bridge between the West and the East," but an independent pillar of the multipolar order. This development has fundamental implications for NATO and the European Union. The alliance must come to terms with the fact that its second-largest army is acting increasingly independently, while the EU faces a neighbor that combines economic cooperation with geopolitical rivalry. Turkey is now an indispensable but increasingly problematic partner for traditional Western structures.
